Turkey is locked in a do-or-die duel between its secular "fundamentalism" and "moderate" Islam. The outcome is likely to bring profound changes at home, and may affect its controversial bid for European Union membership.
The all-embracing clash is coming to a boiling point after the Constitutional Court agreed to take up a case brought by the Chief Prosecutor to close down the highly popular ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) on grounds that it has become a cove for anti-secular activity bent on replacing the secular regime with an Islamic one.
The prosecution also asked that Prime Minister and AKP Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President Abdullah Gul, and 69 other senior party officials be barred from politics for five years.
The AKP, despite its Islamist roots, denies the charges, and portrays itself as "conservative democrat" and loyal to entrenched secularism. The party is also portrayed as an expression of "moderate" Islam, as opposed to a more extreme form.
Party closures are not rare in Turkey. The country is a notorious "graveyard" for political parties. In the past four decades, the judiciary has shut down a score of parties, including two Islamist ones with Erdogan and many other present AKP leaders in their cadres. The EU’s human rights tribunal has upheld the closures as being in line with the country’s laws.
Also facing closure by the Constitutional Court is the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP), accused of links to the outlawed separatist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
The constitutional duel pits AKP, in control of the legislative and executive branches as well as the presidency, against non-elected but powerful and entrenched powers — the judiciary and the military, both viewing themselves as guardians of secularism established by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of modern Turkey, in 1923.
The ruling party is now preparing its written and oral defence. It could, among alternatives, consider changes to the Constitution to nullify its closure, or go for a referendum.
The fact that AKP, which won 47 percent of the vote in the election last year, could be wiped out is causing waves both at home and abroad, especially since the shutdown is seen as likely.
"From a viewpoint of law, the prosecution has a strong case," Istanbul attorney Sanem Yunusoglu told IPS in an interview. "I believe the party will be closed."
She noted that eight of 11 Supreme Court Judges were appointed by the staunchly secular former president Ahmet Necdet Sezer, while only seven votes are needed for the verdict.
"Yes, the party has overwhelming parliamentary majority (320 seats in the 550-member chamber)," she said. "But it shows more interest in flexing its political muscle than respect for established laws. Political power is not above law."
French author Jerome Bastion, Istanbul-based analyst of the Turkish scene, told IPS that he too thinks a closure is likely, adding that Turkey has entered a period of instability.
Bastion says that the AKP, sensing inevitable closure, could disband itself, as previously done by parties facing bans, and form another one, thus keeping its parliamentary majority, or go for early elections it could easily win again.
But if the indictment holds, charismatic Erdogan may be out of political activity for five years.
According to Hasan Cemal from the daily Milliyet, the "judicial coup" began when the court agreed to take up the case. The pro-government daily Zaman called the indictment "totalitarian secularism."
The EU, which accepted Turkey as a candidate member in 1999 and opened accession talks in 2005, is watching closely.
EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso paid his first visit to Turkey last week, and has made clear that closing down a party is in line with EU norms only if a party espouses changes through violence. EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn has said that closing a democratically elected party through judicial means could prejudice Turkey’s EU bid.
The English-language daily Turkish News quoted Joost Lagenijk, Dutch co-president of the EU-Turkey Joint Parliamentary Commission, as saying: "The judiciary wants to teach a lesson to the people of Turkey, saying they have chosen wrong in the elections. This is unacceptable."
The indictment against the AKP, citing public statements by its leaders on the predominance of religious values, came to a head when the AKP spearheaded constitutional amendments to lift the ban on headscarves in universities — seen by secularists as a symbol of political Islam rather than an expression of freedom as claimed.
The amendment was passed, but the secular opposition Peoples Republican Party (CHP) petitioned the Supreme Court to rule it invalid on grounds that it is against the overriding constitutional clause stipulating that the secular nature of the republic cannot be changed, or even proposed for change.
A bigger issue for Turkey, still unanswered, is: what if an overwhelming number of people put their faith in an Islamic-rooted party despite claims that it is not secular? Can people vote out secularism?
If the struggle between secularists and those accused of being anti-secular spins out of control, the final arbiter could again be the military, whose armour has deposed four elected governments since 1960, including one it considered anti-secular.
So far, the top brass has abstained from involvement in the controversy — but is on constant watch.