Jan 11 2011
The independence day of the South of Sudan seems most apparently a new reality in the making. Several surveys have recently shown that more than 90 percent of Southern Sudanese will vote for independence on the January 9 referendum, set in 2005 according to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended a 22-year civil war between the country’s North and South.
The conflict between the two sides dates back to 1955, following the country’s independence from the Egyptian-British condominium (1899-1955). Since then, the fighting rivals had two protracted, devastating wars: one from 1955 to 1972 and the other from 1983 to 2005. Sudan’s civil wars were ones of Africa’s most destructive and ferocious wars.
The split of Southern Sudan will create a new reality in the region and will probably have its subversive implications on both parts of Sudan as well as its neighboring states. The two internal rivals would go into a new heated war if dispute over unsettled issues reaches a deadlock.
“If the South, as is likely, chooses secession, it would take with it 80 percent of Sudan’s oil, a figure many think makes it too costly for the nation’s Northern-led government to let the region go,” the Los Angeles Times said. (1)
Possible Scenarios
Political analysts talk about different possible scenarios as the January referendum is approaching. Some see that the South will peacefully choose secession, while others expect tensions that may invalidate the referendum process and further lead to the risk of a new war.
The first scenario of peaceful secession is more probable, given the ruling Sudanese government’s recent statements and declared positions, and given the South’s high interest in a valid and fair referendum that ensures “freedom.”
However, “freedom” of the South will not be the happy end of the story, as threats posed to its people are too hard to fully overcome or control.
“I think the South will secede peacefully, yet this will be a nominal and incomplete independence,” Mohamed Gamal Arafa, a political analyst and an expert on Sudanese affairs, told OnIslam.net.
Leaders of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), the main dominant power in the South, are directly calling on their supporters to “vote for independence and freedom.” But do they fully perceive all the repercussions of that?
Since several issues and points of disagreement are not yet settled, the complete independence of the South will meet huge challenges that both sides have to address, Arafa believes.
Immense Challenges
“The South cannot break away while there are several issues left unresolved. The conflict over Abyei is one of the most disputed issues between the two sides,” Arafa said.
Abyei, a border area rich in oil, is heatedly disputed over, which has postponed its own referendum scheduled for the same date as that of the South.
Distributing oil revenues and natural resources of the South, according to the CPA, is one of the major issues that should have been resolved before the referendum. Such a challenge may take the two rivals back to military confrontation, as many believe.
“According to the CPA, and under the Referendum Act, pre-referendum steps should be performed and agreed upon by the two partners, (but) these were not done. Post-separation arrangements have also not been completed, like the demarcation of borders, the Abyei problem, and how to share the (oil) wealth,” Rabie Abdelati Obeid, a senior member of Sudan’s governing National Congress Party (NCP), told Voice of America (VOA). (2)
With Southern Sudan’s inclination to break away, the two sides of the country are facing immense and complicated threats ahead. The most decisive moment in the history of all Sudanese has come.
In the North
Making use of the current weak position of the ruling NCP, a coalition of opposition parties is calling upon Al-Bashir to immediately step down. They hold him responsible for the “loss” of the South and accuse him of corruption and undemocratic practices made to tighten his totalitarian grip on power.
In a move seen as yielding to opposition a few days before the decisive referendum, Al-Bashir made a public speech inviting opposition parties to join a “broad-based” government. However, the country’s opposition leaders rejected his call and asked him to resign.
Kamal Omer, a senior official at the opposition Popular Congress Party (PCP), said, “We totally reject this — the only solution now is for Al-Bashir to resign and to hold new elections and a forum to agree (on) a new constitution,” the New York Times reported. (3)
Will the government survive the referendum? And if yes, will it be able to face the lingering challenge of the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) decisions regarding Darfur. Risks seem huge, at a time when the country is losing a part of its history, culture, diversity, and, most importantly, people.
South-Wise
Instability will probably be one of the most common characteristics to portray post-secession conditions in Southern Sudan, as many observers expect.
Although secession is seen as a long-awaited dream of independence by many in the South, the challenges awaiting them would not be as easy as they widely expect. It is much harder to fully identify the problems a newborn state would face amid unabated and fierce ethnic and tribal conflicts.
Such conflicts are much prevalent in the South, in addition to the armed opposition led mainly by former members of the ruling SPLM and its army. It is clearly a very difficult mission for the SPLM to contain such heated confrontations on its own.
“Since the beginning of 2010, an estimated 190,000 people have been displaced by interethnic and armed conflicts in Southern Sudan. In 2009, the figure was 391,000 — more than double the number for 2008, which stood at 187,000,” said the UN 2010 report “Scary Statistics — Southern Sudan.”(4)
What will the South face a severe lack of infrastructure and absence of governmental institutions? How will it do without basic constituents of a stable state?
“Poverty is highest in North Bahr Al-Ghazal state, with 75.6 percent of the population living below the poverty line,” the UN report reveals.
Public utilities, drinking water, sanitation facilities, schools, and other services are scarce in the South. Just 50 percent of Southern Sudanese have access to improved drinking water, and only 6.4 percent of them have access to improved sanitation facilities. For every 1,000 primary school students, there is only one teacher, according to the UN report.
External Menaces
One of the major challenges facing Sudan is the US intervention in the South and its role supporting the SPLM to secede from the North. Leaders of the SPLM often travel to America and meet with US officials to discuss issues related to post-secession South.
It is not just these days that the US is showing interest in Sudan; it is a long story of strained relations between the two countries.
In November 2010, nearly 50 days before the South referendum, the US offered Al-Bashir’s government to remove Sudan from the list of state sponsors of terror, for a facilitated secession of the South in return.
US Senator John Kerry visited Khartoum on November 11, carrying a clear US message from US President Barak Obama: “If President Omar Al-Bashir lets Sudan’s oil-rich Southern region secede peacefully in an upcoming referendum in January, the US will remove Sudan from the list of state sponsors of terror as early as the middle of next year,” the Christian Science Monitor (CSM) reported. (5)
The coming days and subsequent months will be decisive in the history of all Sudanese, in the South and the North alike. Leaders on both sides have to ward off the ugly face of a new civil war. In the past, two brutal wars picked the lives of more than 2 million Sudanese people since the country’s independence in 1950s.
Time only will tell what the future carries for Sudan, amid all these storming challenges that await its people on both sides of once a large and rich African country.
References
(1) Los Angeles Time: As vote nears, Sudan’s south anticipates independence and problems.
(2) Voice of America: Unresolved Issues Will Render Referendum ‘Illegimate’ Warns Sudan Party Official.
(3) New York Times: Sudan: Call for Unity Is Rejected
(4) UN 2010 report: Scary Statistics-Southern Sudan.
(5) The Christian Science Monitor: Out of sticks, US offers Sudan a carrot to let South Sudan secede